Bitcoin Price Prediction 2025-2040: Bullish Long-Term Outlook Amid Short-Term Volatility

#BTC

• Technical Indicators: Current consolidation below 20-day MA with bullish MACD signals potential breakout
• Institutional Demand: JPMorgan/BlackRock activity offsets whale sell-off concerns
• Macro Factors: Fed policy and inflation fears create short-term volatility but strengthen BTC's long-term value proposition

BTC Price Prediction

BTC Technical Analysis: Short-Term Outlook

According to BTCC financial analyst John, Bitcoin is currently trading at $101,841.99, below its 20-day moving average of $108,388.78. The MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover with the MACD line at 2213.81 above the signal line at 1467.16. Bollinger Bands indicate potential support at $100,421.21, with resistance at $116,356.34. This suggests a consolidation phase with potential for upward movement if key resistance levels are breached.

Market Sentiment: Mixed Signals for Bitcoin

BTCC financial analyst John notes that while institutional accumulation by JPMorgan and BlackRock is reaching new highs, concerns remain about ETF slowdowns and whale sell-offs. Positive forecasts from ARK Invest ($1.2 million) and JP Morgan ($170K) contrast with short-term volatility warnings. The market appears to be in a transitional phase where institutional support could drive prices higher despite temporary headwinds.

Factors Influencing BTC’s Price

ETF Slow Down, Whales Offload: Is Bitcoin Losing Steam?

Bitcoin's recent 15% decline has exposed a stark divergence in market behavior. Retail investors are accumulating the dip while whales—holders of 10 to 10,000 BTC—have offloaded approximately 32,500 BTC since October 12. Santiment data suggests this institutional exodus could signal a broader trend reversal, with historical patterns favoring whale-driven momentum.

Four critical factors underscore the warning: coordinated whale sales, conflicting market signals, structural shifts, and precedent from past cycles. The sell-off coincides with macroeconomic turbulence triggered by Trump-era tariff policies, amplifying volatility. Meanwhile, ETF inflows show signs of stagnation, further clouding Bitcoin's near-term trajectory.

Privacy on Trial as Samourai Wallet Cofounder Lands in Jail for Writing Code

Samourai Wallet cofounder Keonne Rodriguez has been sentenced to five years in prison, the maximum penalty, for developing privacy-focused code. The case has sparked outrage in the Bitcoin community, with figures like Max Keiser calling for a full pardon. The conviction underscores the ongoing tension between privacy technologies and regulatory enforcement, even as the White House adopts a more crypto-friendly stance.

Despite Donald Trump's campaign promises to curb crypto crackdowns, the arrest of Samourai Wallet developers reveals a stark disparity in enforcement. While banking giant JPMorgan settled sex trafficking allegations for $290 million without jailing any executives, a Bitcoin privacy tool developer faces severe prison time. Foundation, a Bitcoin-centric tools developer, noted the irony: "The current administration often speaks in support of Bitcoin, yet the Justice Department continues to target privacy technologies."

JPMorgan and BlackRock Drive Institutional Bitcoin Accumulation to New Highs

JPMorgan's latest quarterly filings reveal a 64% surge in iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) holdings, reaching 5.284 million shares worth $343 million. The bank's bullish stance accompanies a $170,000 BTC price target, signaling deepening institutional conviction.

BlackRock's parallel accumulation of 800,000 BTC through its spot ETF underscores a structural shift. These flows create firmer market floors and enhance price predictability, with spot ETFs emerging as the preferred institutional on-ramp.

Trump Media's Bitcoin Bet Backfires as Q3 Losses Hit $54.8 Million

Trump Media & Technology Group reported a $54.8 million net loss in Q3 2025 despite its $2 billion Bitcoin treasury allocation. The company's BTC position, acquired at approximately $118,000 per coin, has depreciated to $102,176 - creating $48 million in unrealized losses.

Quarterly revenues remained stagnant below $1 million as legal expenses mounted. Shares of DJT, the company's publicly traded stock, plunged to $12.70 - their lowest level in twelve months. The downturn illustrates crypto's market indifference to political stature, with even presidential portfolios vulnerable to volatility.

Ray Dalio Warns of Fed-Induced Bubble as Unconventional Policy Stance Sparks Inflation Concerns

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio has issued a stark warning about the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy trajectory. The hedge fund luminary identifies a dangerous anomaly: the central bank is easing monetary conditions despite robust equity markets and strong employment figures—a departure from traditional crisis-response mechanisms.

This policy mix mirrors terminal phases of 75-year debt cycles, where excessive leverage forces central banks to monetize obligations. Dalio suggests the Fed is effectively underwriting US Treasury debt through this expansionary stance, creating inflationary pressures that could erode fiat currency values.

Such conditions historically benefit hard assets. Bitcoin and gold emerge as natural hedges against potential dollar debasement, with BTC's fixed supply offering particular appeal during periods of monetary instability. The warning comes as institutional investors increasingly treat cryptocurrency as a macro hedge rather than purely speculative asset.

Strategy Inc Raises €620M in STRE IPO, Plans Bitcoin Purchase and Offers 10% Dividend

Strategy Inc., formerly known as MicroStrategy, has successfully priced its Initial Public Offering (IPO) for 7.75 million Series A Preferred Shares at €80 each, aiming to raise €620 million. The settlement is set for November 13, 2025, with net proceeds expected to reach €608.8 million after accounting for underwriting fees.

The capital will bolster the company's balance sheet, fund additional Bitcoin acquisitions, and enhance long-term liquidity. Notably, Strategy Inc. avoids selling its existing Bitcoin holdings, reinforcing its commitment to the asset despite recent market stagnation.

Investors are offered a 10% annual dividend, with deferred payments compounding up to 18%. This move signals continued institutional confidence in Bitcoin as a treasury asset, even as the broader crypto market faces volatility.

Trump Media Reports $3.1B in Q3 Assets Amid Crypto Expansion and $54.8M Loss

Trump Media and Technology Group (DJT) closed Q3 2025 with $3.1 billion in total assets, marking a surge in financial strength driven by diversified holdings including cash reserves, digital assets, and short-term investments. Revenue reached $61.1 million, fueled by Bitcoin-related strategies and interest earnings, yet the company posted a $54.8 million net loss due to digital asset revaluation and legal costs tied to its 2024 SPAC merger.

Operational resilience shone through with a second consecutive quarter of positive operating cash flow at $10.1 million, underscoring improved financial management. The firm also expanded its cryptocurrency partnerships and prediction market integrations, signaling aggressive growth in digital asset adoption.

Bitcoin Tests $100K Support as On-Chain Signals Hint at Major Rebound Toward $150K

Bitcoin has shown resilience after dipping below $100,000 in early November, with analysts pointing to on-chain data and technical support levels as indicators of a potential sustained upward move toward $150,000. Investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic as BTC navigates critical thresholds that have historically marked market bottoms.

Short-term Bitcoin holdings aged 1-3 months are recording realized losses of roughly -11%, approaching the -12% threshold that preceded sharp rebounds in 2023 and 2024. This pattern, reflecting capitulation phases followed by recoveries, suggests the market may be nearing a turning point. While not a guarantee, the alignment of this metric with other technical signals strengthens the case for a potential rebound.

Bitcoin's Bullish Rebound Hinges on ETF Flows and Key Price Level

Bitcoin trades at $101,328, surrendering a brief recovery to $103,885 as demand momentum wanes. On-chain data reveals long-term holders are selling into weakness, testing structural supports reminiscent of mid-cycle corrections.

The path to recovery demands two critical reversals: US spot Bitcoin ETF flows must turn net positive after sustained outflows, and the price must reclaim and hold the $112,500 threshold—the Short-Term Holders' cost basis. Failure to achieve both risks a slide toward $88,500, a historical marker for deeper corrections.

Repeated failures to hold above $112,500 signal mounting selling pressure, with the current 11% discount inviting further downside. At $100,000, 71% of circulating supply remains underwater, underscoring the precarious balance between bullish hope and bearish reality.

JP Morgan Forecasts BTC At $170K Amid Market Doubts

JP Morgan has reignited the debate on Bitcoin's valuation with a bold projection. The bank argues BTC is significantly undervalued relative to gold, setting a theoretical target of $170,000 based on volatility ratio analysis.

The analysis comes as Bitcoin struggles below $100,000 amidst heightened market uncertainty. JP Morgan's quantitative methodology compares the 'relative risk' between Bitcoin and gold, suggesting a mechanical revaluation of BTC's market capitalization could be imminent.

This institutional endorsement arrives at a critical juncture for crypto markets searching for direction. The $170,000 price target represents a stark contrast to current levels, potentially signaling renewed institutional confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value proposition.

ARK Invest Revises Bitcoin Forecast to $1.2 Million Amid Stablecoin Surge

Bitcoin's price dipped 1.45% to $101,742, with its market capitalization holding steady at $2.03 trillion. Trading volume declined marginally to $66.63 billion, signaling a pause in speculative activity after recent gains.

ARK Invest slashed its long-term Bitcoin price target to $1.2 million, citing the growing influence of stablecoins, which now command a $300 billion market presence. Cathie Wood's firm adjusted its projection downward by $300,000, reflecting stablecoins' disruptive potential.

Standard Chartered predicts stablecoins could divert $1 trillion from emerging market banks by 2028. Analysts view Bitcoin's modest pullback as natural profit-taking after weeks of institutional-driven rallies, with its inflation-hedge appeal remaining intact.

BTC Price Predictions: 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040 Forecasts

John of BTCC highlights that Bitcoin's long-term trajectory remains strongly bullish, with short-term volatility driven by macroeconomic factors. The 2024 halving and institutional adoption are expected to propel prices toward $170K by 2025. By 2040, network effects could position BTC as a global reserve asset with million-dollar valuations.